The Mountain West has been dominated by the Boise State Broncos in recent seasons, with the conference split between likely challengers and teams searching for identity while rebuilding. UNLV has been the closest challenger in recent seasons, but how does the conference project heading into 2025?
Here are PFSN’s 2025 Mountain West projections using the latest data and insight metrics.
12) New Mexico Lobos
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.88-7.12
- Projected Mountain West Record: 3.21-4.79
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 1.78%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
A challenging year awaits in Albuquerque as the program begins life under Jason Eck. The Lobos haven’t had a winning season since 2016, and PFSN doesn’t project that 2025 will break that streak. New Mexico is expected to win 4.88 games in the upcoming season, as the loss of talent presents a difficult challenge to overcome.
However, Eck’s arrival brings intrigue to the program. He is following a model of importing successful FCS standouts, hoping they can make the jump. This includes quarterback Jack Layne, who follows his head coach to New Mexico from Idaho. Layne has big shoes to fill, as dynamic dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier transferred to Utah.
11) Nevada Wolfpack
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.9-7.1
- Projected Mountain West Record: 3.24-4.76
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 1.93%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Nevada should improve in 2025, but it may not be enough to reach the top half of the conference. The Wolf Pack hasn’t won more than three games since 2021 and ended the 2024 season with a 3-10 record under Jeff Choate. PFSN projects them to win 4.9 games in 2025, with the ground game playing a significant role.
Choate leaned heavily on his running game in 2024, and Hershel Turner is expected to carry the load. Turner ranked 10th in the Mountain West, averaging 5.1 yards per carry in 2024. Meanwhile, Chubba Purdy will start at quarterback, having completed 72% of his passes in seven appearances with one start in 2024.
10) Wyoming Cowboys
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.02-6.98
- Projected Mountain West Record: 3.49-4.51
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 2.26%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
The 2024 season proved disappointing under Jay Sawvel in Wyoming, with the Cowboys finishing 3-9 and posting their first losing record since 2020. The post-Craig Bohl era was always going to be difficult in Laramie, but the results provided little for fans to celebrate.
The offense ranked 119th in the FBS, averaging 327.3 yards per game, while the defense ranked 104th, allowing 410.6 yards per game. Significant improvement is needed in Sawvel’s second season, and PFSN projects a slight improvement to 5.02 wins in 2025.
9) Air Force Falcons
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.31-6.69
- Projected Mountain West Record: 3.44-4.56
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 2.95%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Air Force has posted three 10-win seasons in the last six years, but the PFSN model doesn’t project another for the Falcons in 2025. Troy Calhoun’s team finished 5-7 in 2024, but ended the season with four consecutive wins, making the record more respectable. Reaching a bowl game would constitute success heading into the 2025 season.
The program offers consistency on offense, with several starters returning on both sides of the ball, indicating that the Falcons should improve in 2025. The Air Force defense ranked first in the Mountain West, allowing an average of 341.9 yards per game, and the offense will lean on running back Dylan Carson, who should be a difference maker in his senior year.
8) Fresno State Bulldogs
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.6-6.4
- Projected Mountain West Record: 3.94-4.06
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 5.75%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Fresno State endured a difficult start to the season, losing 31-7 to Kansas in the season opener. The Bulldogs got their first glimpse of E.J. Warner, who joins his third school to replace Mikey Keene under center. Warner struggled in his debut but still graded out as a B- on PFSN’s College QBi metric, and he will face easier defenses throughout the season.
PFSN projects an average season for Fresno State, with just a 5.75% chance of winning the Mountain West and a slim hope of reaching bowl eligibility with a projected 5.6 win total, the Bulldogs’ worst performance since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.
7) San Diego State Aztecs
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.62-6.38
- Projected Mountain West Record: 3.78-4.22
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 4.29%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
San Diego State presents another intriguing Mountain West story, returning one of the Group of Five’s top defenders in Trey White, who recorded 12.5 sacks and five tackles for loss in 2024. However, a struggling offense plagued Sean Lewis’s first year.
PFSN projects the Aztecs to improve in 2025, expecting San Diego State to win 5.62 games in Lewis’s second year. The offense is likely to progress despite uncertainty at quarterback, which could lead to San Diego State winning its most games since 2022.
6) Colorado State Rams
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.96-6.04
- Projected Mountain West Record: 3.97-4.03
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 5.41%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Colorado State went 8-5 under Jay Norvell in 2024, losing their bowl game, but the Rams were serious Mountain West challengers, flying under the radar nationally. However, they benefited from an easy schedule, and the improved conference quality has lowered their projected wins to 5.96.
The Rams represent a borderline bowl-eligible team with potential. Bradyn Fowler-Nicolosi provides a high floor at quarterback after throwing for 2,892 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. Meanwhile, Ohio State transfer Kjo Antwi brings exciting potential to the receiving corps.
5) San Jose State Spartans
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.23-5.77
- Projected Mountain West Record: 4.31-3.69
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 7.52%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
San Jose State may be underrated, having posted a 7-6 record in three consecutive years and reached bowl eligibility. The Spartans enter their second year under Ken Niumatalolo with turnover on offense. However, if quarterback Walker Eget can limit turnovers, the pieces could fall into place.
Defensively, Jordan Pollard returns after recording 14 tackles for loss in 2024, leading a defense that limited opposing offenses to an average of 147.8 rushing yards per game last season. Despite offensive losses, San Jose State could challenge, with PFSN giving the Spartans a 7.52% chance at a conference title.
4) UNLV Rebels
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.52-5.48
- Projected Mountain West Record: 4.16-3.84
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 7.43%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
The Dan Mullen era began with a sloppy performance in Las Vegas as the Rebels grinded out a Week 0 victory over FCS opposition. Expectations remain high for UNLV, which posted two winning seasons under Barry Odom.
However, PFSN predicts regression for the Rebels, projecting them to win 6.52 games in 2025. Anthony Colandrea started at quarterback in Week 0, but he received a D grade from the PFSN QBi, creating uncertainty under center alongside Alex Orji, who also entered the game. The quarterback competition should at least provide excitement for the offense.
3) Utah State Aggies
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.76-5.24
- Projected Mountain West Record: 4.6-3.4
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 13.2%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
A four-win season in 2024 was forgettable for Utah State, but a notable coaching hire projects the Aggies to make a massive leap in the Mountain West.
Bronco Mendenhall represents an impressive addition as head coach, having led BYU to impressive seasons and Virginia to bowl games. Quarterback Bryson Barnes also returns to Logan after appearing in nine games in 2024, including three starts. The dual-threat quarterback excels with his legs, having set a school record with 193 rushing yards against San Diego State last season.
2) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.8-5.2
- Projected Mountain West Record: 4.16-3.84
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 7.36%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
The Rainbow Warriors’ comeback victory in Week 0 over Stanford showcased their resilience and provided a promising start to the season. PFSN projects Hawaii to win 6.8 games in 2025, the Mountain West’s second-highest win total.
That mark would represent the first time since 2020 that Hawaii has qualified for a bowl game and only the third time in a decade that the Rainbow Warriors have finished with a winning record. Hawaii returns its top two receivers, Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock, who rank as the Mountain West’s highest in 2024 receiving yards, along with Micah Alejado under center, creating optimism in the Pacific.
1) Boise State Broncos
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.24-3.76
- Projected Mountain West Record: 5.7-2.3
- Projected Mountain West Championship Win Probability: 40.13%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Boise State enters its final season in the Mountain West in 2025 following back-to-back conference titles, a playoff appearance, and producing a top-10 draft pick. The Broncos are heavily favored to complete a three-peat, with PFSN projecting a 40.13% chance of them winning three straight titles. However, the model projects Boise State will miss the playoff despite being ranked 25th in the AP preseason poll.
The primary question ahead of the 2025 season for the Broncos is how they will replace Ashton Jeanty. The answer? You can’t. But the running back room remains strong and includes Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod, who can help offset the hole left by the Heisman contender. Additionally, quarterback Maddux Madsen returns under center after leading the conference in passing yards in 2024 (3,018).
