Next up for Duke is a very tough matchup in Washington, D.C. with #1 Michigan, and that game is going to be a really big challenge.
To an extent, these teams mirror each other. For one, Jon Scheyer and Dusty May have no interest whatsoever in Small Ball. They’ve both gone big.
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Scheyer started his Duke career with 6-11 Kyle Filipowski and 7-1 Dereck Lively. Last year, he had 7-1 Khaman Maluach, 6-11 Pat Ngongba, 6-9 Cooper Flagg, 6-9 Maliq Brown and no one smaller than 6-5.
This year, Duke starts 6-11 Ngongba and 6-9 Cameron Boozer up front, augmented by Brown.
In his first year at Michigan, May started 7-0 Vlad Goldin and 6-11 Danny Wolf, both now in the NBA.
This year?
Michigan starts 7-3/255 lb. Aday Mara, 6-9/240 lb. Yaxel Lendeborg and 6-9/250 lb. Morez Johnson up front. It’s one of the rare times that Duke, under Scheyer, will not have a size advantage, but we’ll get back to that.
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Both teams also like to play man defense, and both tend to switch a lot. Neither team is necessarily great from the bonusphere but either can heat up from there. However, Michigan has typically shot poorly from behind the line in the second half, or if not poorly, at least not as well as in the first half.
And Michigan’s starting backcourt, while a bit smaller than Duke’s, is still very good.
Blue Devil fans will remember Elliott Cadeau from his UNC days. He’s another Hubert Davis refugee who has thrived in a new environment. Cadeau is doing a really nice job as the Wolverine point guard. He’s averaging 10.1 ppg and 5.5 assists.
And Nimari Burnett is a solid 6-5 senior who, like Cadeau, shoots well from outside (Cadeau is hitting 40.4% of his threes while Burnett clocks in at 39.8%).
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We think Duke can compete with Michigan’s backcourt, but it might not be like we’ve seen the last couple of games. Why?
Because Scheyer could sic Dame Sarr on their point guards. And Sarr was stunning against both Clemson and Syracuse.
That may not work against Michigan because their front line is so big. Leaving the switching aside, which is arguably not Sarr’s strong point anyway, Duke is going to have a tough time guarding a 7-3 center and two 6-9 forwards.
Mara is averaging 11.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.7 blocks in 22.6 minutes per game. Lendeborg is averaging 14.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 28.7 minutes. And for his part, Johnson is putting up 13.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.1 blocks in 24.1 minutes.
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That’s imposing, and all three guys are solidly built, too.
Needless to say, foul trouble would be a huge problem for Duke, and both Ngongba and Brown have had issues there. For his part, Sarr will be going up against much bigger players and we don’t know how that will work out.
Keep in mind too that Cadeau has played against Duke five times. He’s the best scout they’ll have and he’s been up against Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans extensively. You can add Brown and Ngongba to the list of guys he’s seen often.
It’ll be interesting to see how Cameron Boozer deals with Michigan’s defense inside. He’s going up against two guys his own basic size and another who is a half-foot taller in Mara.
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Boozer has been criticized because he doesn’t play above the rim as much as some guys, like, for instance, Syracuse’s William Kyle.
After Monday’s loss to Duke, Kyle marveled at Boozer’s ability to work inside, saying this: “I don’t think I’ve played a player as talented as that as far as getting to his spots and finding his angles.”
Will he be able to do that against a 7-3 player? That’s going to be key. Of course, Boozer routinely goes outside and also drives, so we’ll see how that works out.
Because this is such a big game, with #1 vs. #3, we’re going to look more closely than we normally do.
Also, we’re going to do link runs on separate daily pages, assuming we find enough links to make that work.
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