Could we actually have an NFL postseason without Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? It’s a distinct possibility after the Broncos pulled out another late win to drop Kansas City to 5-5, leaving the defending AFC champs with work to do to simply make the playoff field.
The Chiefs aren’t the only expected contenders on the outside looking in, especially in the AFC. The Ravens, Texans and Bengals are also in hot water, while the Colts, Patriots and Broncos have been huge surprises as they’ve leapfrogged the rest of the conference. The NFC has been following the script a bit more closely, but there are still shocking contenders, none more so than the Bears, who have surged into the NFC North lead on the strength of a weekly string of heart-stopping wins.
If the current standings hold, a bunch of teams who are used to playing deep into January will be making early vacation plans, while some who have sharpened their golf handicap in recent years will be on an unfamiliar stage. The field is far from set, but barring any changes, how will the race for the Lombardi Trophy unfold?
Here’s how the AFC playoff bracket could play out if the current standings hold
Wild Card round
No. 7 Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) at No. 2 New England Patriots (9-2)
The Jaguars might be the toughest team to figure out in the NFL. They’re capable of beating the Chiefs and destroying the Chargers, but they also gave up 36 points to Davis Mills and needed overtime to beat the lowly Raiders. The Patriots, on the other hand, have become one of the league’s most consistent teams on both sides of the ball, as they’ve scored 23 or more in every game of their current eight-game winning streak, while never giving up more than 23 defensively. I’ll take legit MVP candidate Drake Maye to outplay Trevor Lawrence in what will likely be cold conditions.
No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) at No. 3 Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
Colts fans have been living a dream all season, and given the Jags’ erratic play, they’ll probably just need to take one of their two upcoming meetings to all but sew up the division. The Chargers have been killed by injuries on the offensive line, but every time they look ready to fade, they get off the mat and pick up another win. Most playoff matchups come down to which team has the best head coach/quarterback combo, so even though this game will be in Indy, I trust Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert to throw on a suspect Colts secondary more than I trust Shane Steichen and Daniel Jones to keep their Cinderella run going.
No. 5 Buffalo Bills (7-3) at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
The Bills haven’t been the juggernaut many expected them to be, but they showed on Sunday against the Bucs that as long as they have Josh Allen, they’re capable of wiping out anybody. The Steelers, meanwhile, are hanging on for dear life against the surging Ravens. Buffalo has had no luck getting back to its first Super Bowl since the ’90s, but the Steelers haven’t won a single playoff game in nine seasons. That wouldn’t change here, as Buffalo sports the league’s second-best defense against the pass, while the Steelers rank dead last. Allen will feast in an easy Bills win.
Divisional round
No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 1 Denver Broncos (9-2)
The AFC West has been well-represented deep into the playoffs in recent years, but that’s all thanks to the Chiefs. This time, the Broncos and Chargers will face for the right to reach the AFC title game. Denver’s week of rest and undefeated record at home will serve them well here, as will a dominant defense that easily holds the NFL lead in sacks. The Chargers offensive line has been behind the 8-ball since Rashawn Slater went down before the season even started, and the repeated injuries to Joe Alt haven’t helped. Expect Denver’s pass rush to be the driving force in getting them to within one step of their first Super Bowl in 10 years.
No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 2 New England Patriots
The turning points in these AFC East rivals’ seasons came in Week 5, when the Patriots marched in to Highmark Stadium and won behind a breakout performance from Drake Maye. New England hasn’t lost since, while the Bills have been inconsistent at best. We’ll learn a lot more about each team when they meet again a month from now, but either way, this feels like a classic case of a team being ahead of schedule vs. a team that’s due to break through. The Patriots snuck up on the Bills the first time, and that won’t happen again in the playoffs. If I was a Bills fan, Mike Vrabel vs. Sean McDermott would scare me, but Josh Allen has been superhuman in his playoff career, and I don’t think the Patriots have the running game to take advantage of the league’s second-worst rushing defense. New England will neutralize James Cook again, but Allen will find a way in what should be the first playoff matchup of many to come.
Championship round
No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Denver Broncos
If the football gods are kind, we’ll have snow for this matchup. Either way, it promises to be a great one that will come down to two factors: Can Denver’s elite pass rush get Josh Allen, a notoriously difficult quarterback to sack, on the ground? And can Bo Nix put up enough points early to keep from needing another come-from-behind win? The last time the Broncos won the Super Bowl, it was behind a menacing defense and a limited quarterback. Nix can make more plays at this point of his career than a retirement-ready Peyton Manning, but is he ready to get to a Super Bowl? The Bills have been knocking at the door for years, and though they’re extremely flawed, the Broncos just lost JK Dobbins, so like the Steelers and Patriots before them, they won’t be able to take advantage of a suspect run defense either. Allen won’t be denied his first Super Bowl trip any longer.
Here’s how the NFC playoff bracket could play out if the current standings hold
Wild Card round
No. 7 San Francisco 49ers (7-4) at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
The Niners and Rams have had many memorable matchups in recent years, and they split the season series this year. If San Fran makes the playoff after dealing with so many critical injuries, it should get Kyle Shanahan some Coach of the Year votes, but though both teams have loads of offensive talent, the Rams are much better on the defensive side of the ball. They’ll keep Christian McCaffrey in check and get after Brock Purdy better than the Niners’ patchwork unit will slow down Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford, and move on to the next round.
No. 6 Green Bay Packers (6-3-1) at No. 3 Chicago Bears (7-3)
Raise your hand if you had the Bears leading the NFC North at any point after they started the season 0-2? You’re a liar, put your hand down. The Packers had Super Bowl aspirations after trading for Micah Parsons just before the season started, but they’ve struggled to look the part on offense. Losing Tucker Kraft for the season is a big blow, and Matthew Golden hasn’t popped like Pack fans hoped. Contrast that to the Bears, who lead the league in explosive plays by a wide margin since welcoming Ben Johnson to town. It’s fair to wonder whether the defense can continue creating turnovers at such a high rate while giving up so many yards, but Chicago has been operating for much of the year without its top two cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. They’ll be back long before this matchup takes place. That fact and a rabid Soldier Field crowd will make the difference in this one.
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
The Seahawks have been the No. 1 team in DVOA, but Sunday’s loss to the Rams puts them in a perilous position. It’s going to be difficult to win the NFC West, which could send Seattle on a cross-country trip for the Wild Card round. The Bucs are another team that’s been hanging in despite being banged up, but if they can just close out the NFC South and get to the postseason, they could be dangerous once they get there. These two teams played a classic in Week 5, with Baker Mayfield outdueling his 2018 draft mate Sam Darnold 38-35. With homefield advantage and Darnold’s tendency to shrink in big games, the Bucs will move on.
Divisional round
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
There aren’t many teams that have been able to hang with the Eagles when facing them multiple times, but the Bucs since Baker Mayfield arrived are one of them. The teams are 2-2 against each other, and that includes Tampa’s 32-9 playoff destruction of Philly two years ago. This year, Mayfield almost erased a 21-point deficit in Week 4 before an end zone interception and a late turnover on downs resulted in a close Eagles win. Nick Sirianni’s team continues to struggle offensively, and that’s a real concern. But the defense has more than made up for it lately, while Tampa has fallen off after a fast start. Philly’s defensive resurgence seems sustainable, and I expect their offense to steady itself in the next two months. Mayfield will battle as he always does, but it won’t be enough.
No. 3 Chicago Bears at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams
I wrote about the Patriots being ahead of schedule, and the Bears are right there with them as a team that nobody expected to be here. They’ll be riding high after finally toppling the Packers, and with this game on the SoFi Stadium turf, expect both offenses to put up points. At the end of the day, the Bears just have too much difficulty stopping the run, and with the resources that Puka Nacua and Davante Adams will command, that will leave Kyren Williams to run wild. Caleb Williams’ elusiveness and playmaking ability will keep the Bears in it, but this year at least, the Rams will be too much to handle.
Championship round
No. 2 Los Angeles Rams at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams played the Eagles tough earlier this year, and they were the only team to put up a fight against them in last year’s postseason. Since Sean McVay took over as head coach, though, he’s only 1-6 against the Birds, so he’ll have to overcome those past demons to get back to his third Super Bowl. The Eagles are such a strange team, simultaneously unimpressive yet inevitable, while the Rams have shown a malleability to win in many different ways as they’ve rolled off five straight. I’m going off of vibes and picking the Rams to end Philly’s repeat bid, because Matthew Stafford is on top of his game and the Eagles just don’t seem like they’re on the same page.
Super Bowl prediction after Week 11
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
If this Super Bowl meeting goes anything like the last meeting did, when the Rams survived a furious Josh Allen-led comeback in the fourth quarter last December to win 44-42, then football fans are in for a treat. Ironically, Allen had his first game with three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns in that one, and he just had his second against the Bucs this past Sunday. Unfortunately for Bills fans, the heartbreak of the ’90s will again rear its head, because this Rams offense is just too balanced to be stopped. Stafford and McVay have been here before, and though L.A.’s defense can’t quite match one that had Aaron Donald anchoring it, it’s second in the league in turnovers forced and eighth in sacks. It might only take a few stops to win this game, and the Rams are better equipped to get them.
