Last Week Minnesota? This week Chicago
Third Black ‘n’ Blue Matchup
Sun, Jan 4, 2026 Green Bay Packers | Spread +6.5 $ or Money Line +240 Total Points O_36.5 |
| Team# 336 Minnesota Vikings | Spread -6.5 $Line -300 Total Points U_36.5 |
Handicapping Point Spreads by the Stats
| Green Bay | Minnesota |
| Points For 388/16 = 24.25 | Points Agn 344 /16 = 21.5 | Points For 328/15 = 21.86 | Points Agn 330/15 = 20.62 |
| GB 24.25 – MN 21.86 = 2.39 Awarded to GB |
| GB 21.5 – 20.62 = 0.88 Awarded to MN |
| GB 2.39 – MN 0.88= GB Awarded 1.51 |
| GB 24.25 – MN 21.86 = 2.39 Awarded to GB |
| GB 21.5 – 20.62 = 0.88 Awarded to MN |
| GB 2.39 – MN 0.88= GB Awarded 1.51 |
| – MN HFA Plus +3.00 |
EXPECTED LINE
Game PS = MN – 1.50
Game $Line = MN – 1.30
Variables other than Stats matter with one of the most important: How lopsided wagers are to one team. The above is about the point spread you would expect to see on this game but when you see the game come out with Minnesota team not only favored but favored by 6.5 an immediate alarm turns on in your head.
Whaaaaat?
The Book knows either by NFL experience or even verbal exchanges Green Bay will not play starters including the QB. Perhaps they just know from experience the Green Bay Chicken Packers will lay down like whimpering dogs. Perhaps not enough for MN to cover 6.5 but sure enough to lose. With no skin in the game for either team as the Green Bay Chicken Packers are locked into the 7 seed. They don’t care enough about them winning this game. They care about the Bears/Lions game. They will rest players and lay down like whimpering dawgs! GB won the first game 23 – 6.
By some measure this game seems to be rigged. The Bears need to beat the Lions to avoid playing the Rams or 49ers. While the game line opened – 6.5 –110 Vikings by game time it was up to – 12.5 -110. My book allows me to add or subtract points for a fee. Therefore I added a ½ point for a -120 so our wager was: Green Bay +13 –120
The logic here is: Only 10% of sports wagers beat the books on a given year. This game opened @ – 6.5 and the wagers drove it up to – 12.5…. Seriously? Well…. Maybe! If the favorite was a value @ – 6.5 it is no longer a value at -12.5!
Also please note: This game was a great opportunity to middle the game winning both sides of the wager. You would have had to take the Vikes – 6.5 early then take the Packers late @ +12.5 and hope the score lands right in the middle winning both wagers. Even if you win only one side you only lose the 10% vig on one side. Not an easy task but a whole lot easier on this game with such a major move in the PS.
| Sunday Wager 01/04/2026 Spread FB Game# 335 Green Bay Packers +13 -120 buying ½ for Game |
Results: You guessed it. Minnesota won by 13
A push/tie (no bet) for me, would be a loss if U could not buy points
Think about that. Point spreads are most often set to attract money on one team or the other. It is not necessarily an accurate gauge of how much better one team is than the other. This game came out, alarm simply because the books knew the Packers were going to lay down like dogs and have no interest in playing regulars. So, normally when point spreads move they move because they are receiving lopsided wagers on one team vs the other so the line moves to attract wagers on the other team and balance their books thereby reducing the sport Book’s risk. With balanced wagering the book makes the Commish, Juice or Vig if you will.
Now, think about this game opening at – 6.5 and the wagers knew the Packers were going to not play regulars. So, you probably had bettors loading up on the Vikings knowing the Packers did not care to play starters. So I have a perception of the point spread climbing all week long from – 6.5 to to -12.5 as wagers piled on MN. I did not watch it during the week just saw the opening and late line.
Assuming the sportsbooks had significantly unbalanced books with most of the money going on the Vikings if the Packers won the books could see substantial losses on that game. (Don’t know they were unbalanced but seems likely.) Now know, if you wagered at a book that did not allow you to buy the hook (½ Point) off all that money that piled on the Vikings was lost to the book. If anyone paid – 12.5 they still lost! I never follow the money chasing point spreads.
If nothing else it is highly suspicious and the game should be looked at by the regulators. Yes, and perhaps it should have been taken off the board given one team stated they would play reserves. But then SCOTUS legalized sports gambling but Congress has not regulated it. Allowing the books to be advertising partners and friends with the NFL Teams is a disaster in the making. It puts the NFL officially in the gambling biz. Under the current rules the amount of money to be made by fixing a game can be so large the temptation for franchises to do so would be too much to pass up. Risk/Reward! Especially fairly meaningless games like last Sunday’s Vikes/Packers game. The important thing to remember is:
If the outcome of NFL Games is not ‘Unknown’ to everyone (and that is an accurate absolute) then you turn the game into the level of professional wrestling. It’s just a show! Do you know anyone who gambles on professional wrestling? If you are going to have legal Sports Wagers why then you better have the guardrails! I am not saying the game was fixed. I am saying it was suspicious and should have been taken off the board when the Packers said they had little interest in playing regulars including the QB.
Perhaps our legislators can get to that after they finish chasing the High Class Pimps ‘Johns’! Too bad the legislative millionaires don’t seem to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. It is a bad idea to not regulate almost all business(es). It is a recipe for a disaster.
THIRD TIME IS A CHARM?
The Bears could not beat the Lions to avoid a Wild Card rematch. In the NFL you really do not want to have to play the same team 3X’s in a season to advance in the playoffs. Most NFL Teams are about a 500 winning percentage so even beating one 2X’s can be a challenge.
Handicapping Stats for this Saturdays Rematch
BEARS STATS 2/GAMES GREEN BAY
| 21 | 2 Game Scoring | 28 |
| 436 | Passing | 412 |
| 288 | Rushing Achieved | 309 |
| 309 (2,287) | Rush Against | 288 |
| 3 | TO’S – Turnovers | 2 |
Stats Against the League
| 6th | 6,277 | League Offense | 15th | 5, 654 |
| *29th | 6150 | League Defense | *12th | 5,301 |
| 6th | 441 | League Scoring | 15 | 391 |
| 6th | 25.9 | League Score PG | 15 | 23 |
| 415 =’s PG> | 24.4 | League Score Agin PG | 360 | 21.2 |
Bears Lead the League in T/O’s @ + 22
GB is 13th in the League in T’O’s @ +1
Strength of Schedule: The Bears path was slightly more grueling than Green Bay’s
Source: Gemini
Performance against Common Opponents
| CHICAGO SCORING | GB vs Chicago | Green Bay Scoring |
| FOR | AGAINST | TEAMS | FOR | AGAINST |
| 24 | 27 | Minnesota | 26 | 6 |
| 19 | 17 | Minnesota | 3 | 16 |
| 21 | 52 | Detroit | 27 | 13 |
| 16 | 19 | Detroit | 31 | 24 |
| 31 | 14 | Dallas | 40 | 40 |
| 24 | 24 | Washington | 27 | 18 |
| 16 | 30 | Baltimore | 24 | 41 |
| 47 | 42 | Cincinnati | 27 | 18 |
| 31 | 3 | Cleveland | 10 | 13 |
| 24 | 20 | NY Giants | 27 | 20 |
| 21 | 28 | Pittsburgh | 36 | 25 |
| 24 | 15 | Philly | 7 | 10 |
| 43 | 44 | GB vs Chi – 2X’s | 44 | 43 |
| 341 | 335 | TOTALS | 329 | 287 |
| 24.36 0.86 | 23.9 | Per Game | 23.5 3.0 2.14 | 20.5 |
Stats handicapping put the PS @ Green Bay – 2.14 but opening Line is at a Pick – Perhaps with the hook not a significant difference in the opening line
The Bears own the better stats, sort of. Consider, the Bears were close to the bottom of the league in yards against the rush and points against.
I agree with Mr. Barnwell’s conclusion.
- Class and Breeding Vs Speed (Gamblers will almost always take class & Breeding over speed)
- GB has the Better Defense
- GB has the Better QB (although coming back from injury)
- Bears have the healthier team
- Bears have the better offense
While the Bears are at the top of the NFL for take-aways the fact of the matter is they don’t do as well when they don’t get the turnovers. The Bears are third in the NFL in rushing.
As of January 2026, the Green Bay Packers hold the all-time series lead over the Chicago Bears.
One this is the most-played rivalry in NFL history, having spanned over 100 years.
All-Time Series Record – (Source: Gemini)
| Category | Record (Packers – Bears – Ties) |
| Regular Season | 108–96–6 |
| Postseason | 1–1 |
| Total | 109–97–6 |
In the last 20 years (spanning the 2006 season through the 2025 season), the rivalry has been overwhelmingly dominated by the Green Bay Packers.
Record Since 2006 (Source; Gemini)
| Team | Wins |
| Green Bay Packers | 33 |
| Chicago Bears | 8 |
| Postseason | 1–0 (Packers) |
This ^ is what we call ’Class & Breeding’
In the last ten seasons (2016–2025), the Green Bay Packers have been almost entirely in control, though the Chicago Bears have finally started to push back in the most recent calendar year.
Record Since 2016 (Source; Gemini)
| Team | Wins |
| Green Bay Packers | 17 |
| Chicago Bears | 3 |
Monsters of the Mid-Way Not so Much the last couple of decades. I like, in order of strength:
If only game, only pick Houston take the ML
In order of strength take Houston -155 (Defense is too impressive statistically)
Green Bay -115
New England – 3pts -120 (say what U will about NE’s schedule) I like the NE game the least. Shy on the Pts & ML too high)
Gook Luck
Tom Flash
