Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner introduces a new financial impulse indicator based on the Fed’s FCI-G indicator that signals how strongly the financial environment is driving or slowing down the economy. The indicator currently signals strong support for Eurozone growth and Commerzbank projects around 1% growth in 2026 and 2027.
New indicator shows ongoing tailwinds
“The ECB is currently working on a “Macro-Finance Financial Conditions Index (MF-FCI).” We have developed such an indicator, based on the “Financial Conditions Indicator for US Growth (FCI-G)”, which the Federal Reserve has recently started to calculate for the US economy.”
“Our financial impulse indicator suggests that local financial conditions are giving the eurozone economy a noticeable boost this year.”
“Financing conditions are likely to remain favorable in 2026.”
“This picture is unlikely to change significantly in 2027.”
“We also expect house prices and stock prices to continue to rise.”
“Overall, we expect economic growth of around 1% for the eurozone in both 2026 and 2027.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
