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A Big Ten championship matchup between Purdue and Michigan was never certain, but it isn’t surprising either.
Both teams have occupied the No. 1 spot in the AP poll for a portion of the season, though it’s been merely weeks since the Wolverines were on top compared to the three-month stretch that Purdue has been trying to regain its claim as the best team in the country.
The Boilermakers have their best chance to plant their flag, for at least a few days, on Sunday afternoon. They just need to supplant a team that hasn’t lost to another Big Ten team since Jan. 10.
The betting line has shifted slightly by a half point in both directions and seems to have settled where it opened at Michigan -6.5.
Purdue vs. Michigan prediction, best bet
Michigan was the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten tournament and has so far weathered each challenge with impressive poise.
In the semifinal game against Wisconsin, the only conference foe to beat Michigan this season, the Badgers hit 16 3-pointers. It was the most Michigan allowed this season, just ahead of the 15 3s Wisconsin hit in that January game.
But star forward Yaxel Lendeborg’s go-ahead 3-ball with 0.5 seconds left was the difference between a one-possession win in the tournament and their one-possession loss in the regular season.
Purdue’s path has been less dramatic. The Boilermakers beat Northwestern and Nebraska by 29 points combined, then took care of business against UCLA in the semis. The most impressive part of Purdue’s run thus far has been its ability to win comfortably despite point guard Braden Smith struggling throughout.
Smith has scored just five points in each of the three conference tournament games and has shot a subpar 4-for-23 from the floor. Smith embodies the prototypical point guard we rarely see in today’s game because he can get other players involved even when he isn’t a scoring threat. He has notched nearly 10 assists in all three games, falling one dime short against UCLA.
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Michigan’s length and defense could keep Smith at bay, but I don’t think that alone will be enough to stop a Purdue offense that ranks first in the nation per Bart Torvik’s rankings.
The Boilermakers don’t need to hit 15 3-pointers to keep this game close because their offense is balanced enough that they can get good shots all over the floor. They rank among the top 25 teams in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage (22nd) and 3-point percentage (15th).
I expect this one to be tight down the stretch and like Purdue to keep it close.
I’ll take the points at +6.5 or better.
The Pick: Purdue +6.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
