DMK, AIADMK neck-and-neck in Tamil Nadu; Stalin leads CM race narrowly, shows poll

Tamil Nadu’s political contest is shaping up as a razor-close fight between the ruling DMK alliance and the AIADMK-led bloc, with both sides nearly tied across key indicators, according to the Network18 opinion poll.

The survey shows the DMK+ alliance at 40.1% vote share, marginally ahead of AIADMK+ at 38.1%, indicating a statistical dead heat. Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s TVK emerges as a notable third force with 14.8%, though it is not yet seen as a serious contender for power.

In the chief ministerial preference, incumbent M. K. Stalin leads narrowly with 39.9%, closely followed by Edappadi K. Palaniswami at 37.5%, underlining a highly competitive race at the top.

Despite being in power for five years, the DMK government’s performance has received a mixed verdict. About 40% of respondents rated it “good” or “very good”, while nearly 39% viewed it negatively, reflecting a polarised electorate.

At the ground level, signs of anti-incumbency are visible. Over half of the respondents indicated reluctance to re-elect their sitting MLAs, suggesting voter dissatisfaction may play out more strongly at the constituency level than in the broader state contest.

On key voter concerns, social issues dominate over economic ones. Alcoholism and drug abuse emerged as the top concern (20.1%), followed by women’s safety (17.8%) and law and order (17.3%). Unemployment, at 15.5%, remains a significant but secondary issue overall.

The poll also highlights clear demographic divides. Women voters tend to favour the DMK and Stalin, while men lean towards the AIADMK. Younger voters show higher support for Vijay, indicating his potential as a spoiler in closely contested seats.

Regionally, the DMK+ alliance appears stronger in the Delta and southern regions, while AIADMK+ holds an edge in western Tamil Nadu, traditionally its stronghold.

Overall, while the contest remains largely bipolar between the two Dravidian majors, the entry of Vijay’s party adds an element of unpredictability, especially in urban and youth-heavy constituencies.

With both alliances locked in a close race and voter sentiment sharply divided, the upcoming election in Tamil Nadu is poised to be one of the most competitive in recent years.