training camp. One site rolled out an underwhelming version for Minnesota last week — the club finishing under 8.5 wins, its current forecast from oddsmakers.
Fantasy Life‘s Ian Hartitz made the proclamation while sizing up the franchise’s fantasy outlook. It’s another prediction of many that are all over the board for Minnesota.
Vikings Win Total Debate Now Runs through Kyler Murray
 makes a first down catch against Minnesota Vikings cornerback Isaiah Rodgers (2) in the fourth quarter during their football game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images.</p>
<p>” data-large-file=”https://vikingsterritory.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Isaiah-Rodgers-1180×646.jpg” src=”https://vikingsterritory.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=788,height=444,fit=crop,quality=75,gravity=auto,metadata=none,format=auto,onerror=redirect/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Isaiah-Rodgers.jpg” alt=”Christian Watson catches a pass against Isaiah Rodgers at Lambeau Field. Vikings win total” ><figcaption>Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson secures a reception beyond the sticks while Minnesota’s defense tries to close out a divisional road contest. On Nov. 23, 2025, Watson made the first-down catch against Vikings cornerback Isaiah Rodgers in the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images.</figcaption></figure>
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<p><strong>Hartitz: Vikings = Under 8.5 Wins</strong></p>
<p>Analyzing each NFL squad before Week 1, Hartitz landed on Minnesota. <a href=)
He wrote, “Win total prediction: While this Vikings team sputtered in 2025, there’s still plenty of talent on both sides of the football. It’d be a lot cooler for Skol faithful if the NFC North weren’t so loaded, but hey, we only have to go back one season to find the last time Minnesota handled that challenge with flying colors.”
“And yet, I’m taking UNDER 8.5 wins due to the potential for this defense to take a slight step back after losing some front-seven talent, and for the offense to (unfortunately) remain stuck in neutral. Bold fantasy call: Justin Jefferson will get back on track — and so will Jordan Addison. Give me a top-24 finish for the talented fourth-year receiver.”
Hartitz also expects a commendable year from Kyler Murray, mainly because of Kevin O’Connell’s work with Sam Darnold two years ago.
Why Hartitz Will Be Wrong
Hartitz’s unflattering outlook on Minnesota could prove false for a handful of reasons. Minnesota’s case begins with the defense. The Vikings underwent a transformation with Brian Flores’s arrival in 2023. O’Connell’s inaugural season was plagued by Ed Donatell’s ineffective defense, a unit that often allowed opponents to dictate the game rather than Minnesota asserting control. Flores immediately shifted the team’s calling card, and ever since, the defense has been the team’s most undeniable strength.
This development holds big implications for Murray. In Arizona, Murray spent the majority of his career burdened by defenses that ranged from mediocre to poor — a challenging scenario for any quarterback. Now, envision him with a top-tier defense, O’Connell’s play-calling, an elite receiving corps featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, and a capable offensive line. Suddenly, an 8.5-win projection appears quite attainable.
The Vikings achieved nine wins last year with a comparable roster, and that’s before accounting for a quarterback upgrade. While Jonathan Greenard’s departure to Philadelphia is a loss, Murray represents a legitimate upgrade in efficiency. His career EPA+CPOE metrics surpass those of Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and C.J. Stroud.
If the prospect of Mayfield or Lawrence in Minnesota seems desirable, well, the Vikings are getting that in Murray. That’s just all there is to it.
Why Hartitz Might Be Right
If Hartitz nails the under 8.5 games, it will mean a few things. Foremost, finishing 8-9 or worse will mean that Murray does not take off in the Vikings’ offense, perhaps succumbing to injuries or flatly underperforming. As always, it starts at quarterback.
Then What?
A losing season without a postseason berth may spell trouble for the Vikings — O’Connell in particular. It’s already a little peculiar that O’Connell will enter Year No. 5 of his coaching tenure with full-throated support from the team’s ownership while not having a playoff win under his belt. There is very tiny precedent for head coaches to see Year No. 5 with the same team sans a postseason dub.
win a playoff game.
ESPN’s Football Power Index claims the Vikings have a 29% chance of reaching the playoffs. The regular season is 96 days away.
Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker
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