Something you should know about the Basketball Hall of Fame is that it plays fast and loose with the word “fame.” Basically, most stars get in eventually. Michael Cooper never made an All-Star Game. Mo Cheeks averaged around 11 points per game. The two-time champion Knicks of the 1970s had seven total Hall of Fame players, not including Phil Jackson or Red Holzman, who got in as coaches. If the hypothetical “Hall of Very Good” we joke about in other sports existed, it would just be the Basketball Hall of Fame.
The Hall inducted its latest class on Saturday, with Amar’e Stoudemire serving as the NBA headliner. So when the CBS Sports NBA staff was posed with a handful of borderline Hall of Famers, you’ll be shocked to hear that we leaned into the history and assumed most, despite in some cases relatively low Basketball-Reference probability, would eventually be enshrined. Will these six veterans ultimately be in or out? Our picks and reasoning are below.
Karl-Anthony Towns
Current Hall of Fame probability (per Basketball-Reference): 86.9%
Brad Botkin: In. The reputation as a non-winning softie is dead. Towns has always been one of most talented and productive bigs in the game; he is the only player in history to hold career averages of at least 22 points and 11 rebounds per game while shooting 39% from 3. He’s a six-time All-Star and three-time All-NBA selection. He was Rookie of the Year. And now he’s an NBA champion as the second-best player on the Knicks. And he’s far from done. Towns is only 30 and will be stretching the floor for another five years easy. This isn’t close. He’s in.
John Gonzalez: In. If we had asked this question a few years ago — or maybe even a few months ago, when the Knicks reportedly dangled him at the trade deadline during their post NBA Cup slump — it might have elicited a shoulder shrug. Sure. Put him in. Whatever. Now the answer is something much more emphatic. The self-professed best shooting big in NBA history has always racked up counting stats, but lately those numbers have come in service of something greater than himself. He was a critical component in delivering the Knicks’ first title in 53 years. The man has leveled up an already impressive game, and he has plenty of time left in his career to stack more accomplishments.
Sam Quinn: In. The obvious comparison here is Amar’e Stoudamire, who just got in. Towns has as many All-Star appearances and just two fewer All-NBA selections, but he’s still only going into his age-31 season. He’ll have more time to pad his résumé, and he has the ultimate edge in the form of his 2026 championship. He might not be a first-ballot choice, but Towns is absolutely getting in.
Devin Booker
Current Hall of Fame probability: 17.3%
Brad Botkin: In. Booker feels a lot like Jaylen Brown minus the championship to me, which is to say his name has the ring of an eventual Hall of Famer, but when I look at the résumé it’s not slam-dunk impressive. Two All-NBA teams. One top-four MVP finish. Five All-Stars. Most of his career has been spent on losing teams, save for the Chris Paul years. But at the end of the day, he’s been an elite scorer. He’s one of 30 players in history to average at least 24 points for his career, and he’s got real shot, at just 29 years, to threaten 30,000 career points, which at present only nine players have ever done. Plus, he has the two Olympic gold medals. The scoring numbers and the gold medals are going to be too powerful to keep him out.
John Gonzalez: In. This was perhaps the hardest pick of the bunch. He’s a dynamic scorer, but his shooting efficiency plummeted last season. He’ll be 30 in October. He has plenty of game left, but how much time remains to convince people he’s Springfield worthy? The five All-Star and two All-NBA selections are nice enough, but those alone don’t get him in. It’s the two Olympic golds that push him across the line — if only barely.
Sam Quinn: In. He’s a borderline case who won’t, at least for now, merit a first-ballot selection. He’s trending down statistically, and he’s on a moribund Suns franchise with little hope of serious winning in the near future, so unless someone trades for his bad contract (unlikely) or he has a second act as a role player in his mid-30s on a winner (a bit likelier), his NBA résumé is probably close to settled. However, he has two Olympic gold medals, and this is the Basketball Hall of Fame, not the NBA Hall of Fame. He’s also a five-time NBA All-Star, and every eligible guard with at least five All-Star selections has made the Hall of Fame cut. If that got Tim Hardaway in, it will get Devin Booker in.
Rudy Gobert
Current Hall of Fame probability: 31.8%
Brad Botkin: In. There is a bar for borderline Hall of Famers, but it’s lower than you think. Gobert is well above it. The man is tied with Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace (both Hall of Famers) for the most DPOY wins with four. He’s a nine-time All-Defensive team selection. He’s a four-time All-NBA selection. For a decade plus, he has been as close to a one-man defense as anyone in the league. If you think Gobert is a borderline Hall of Famer, you are just admitting you don’t view both sides of basketball as anything close to equal.
John Gonzalez: In. What are we doing here? People love to figuratively dunk on Gobert for being annoying or because of his limited offensive game, but he’s unquestionably one of the best defenders and rim protectors of his era. He’s a four-time Defensive Player of the Year and has nine All-Defensive selections to his credit. Toss in the three All-Star and four All-NBA teams for good measure. Put the personality aside. His game warrants the honor.
Sam Quinn: In. There are three four-time Defensive Player of the Year winners. Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo made it, so I’m presuming Rudy Gobert will as well. Wallace is the only champion of the set, but if Mutombo could get in without a ring, Gobert should be able to as well, especially with his two Olympic silver medals. If he can add a gold medal in 2028 or an NBA championship somewhere along the way, that probably clinches it. For now, he has fewer All-Star selections than Mutombo and fewer All-NBA berths than Wallace, so he remains on the bubble.
Al Horford
Current Hall of Fame probability: 26.5%
Brad Botkin: In. This is the closest call yet if we’re basing it on stats/accolades, but if you polled 100 NBA execs and asked them who they would rather have on their team, prime Rudy Gobert or prime Horford, the overwhelming majority are taking Horford. A jack of all trades, Horford has connected teams on both ends for his entire career. On another résumé, the one All-NBA and one All-Defense selection would look thin, but everyone knows Horford is better than those limited honors indicate. Bottom line, the guy has won three championships that count toward HOF merits: One with the Celtics and back-to-back national titles at Florida. He’s going to have 20 years in the league at minimum, and he’s been one of the most respected guys for most of that time. He’s going in.
John Gonzalez: In. Another borderline call. He made All-Rookie way back in 2007-08. He’s made All-NBA and All-Defense once. He’s a five-time All-Star. That’s a nice if not-quite spectacular career. The late-stage title with the Boston Celtics helps, as do the back-to-back college chips at Florida. So does the longevity. The man just turned 40. Al Horford has played high-level college and pro ball for the last 22 years. There’s something to be said for being that good and that useful for that long.
Sam Quinn: In. Remember folks, it is, again, the Basketball Hall of Fame. We are not just looking at NBA achievements. Horford was either the best or the second-best player on one of the only nine teams ever to repeat as NCAA champions. That holds a lot of weight here. That alone wouldn’t guarantee him selection, but his NBA résumé is stronger than you’re probably thinking. He’s made as many All-Star teams as Booker. He’s an NBA champion who’s won almost 62% of his professional games. There’s much more of a logjam at forward than there is at guard, so Horford might have to wait for players like Shawn Kemp and Chris Webber to hear their names called, but he will eventually make the cut.
Donovan Mitchell
Current Hall of Fame probability: 58.9%
Brad Botkin: In. If Mitchell never makes a Finals, let alone wins a championship, you are going to hear a lot of people screaming about “winning basketball” vs. numbers. But he’s most likely getting in. He finished fifth in MVP voting in 2023, and sixth and seventh in the past two seasons. He’s made three All-NBA teams, one first team and two seconds. He currently owns the seventh-highest postseason scoring average in history at 27.8. He’s not finished as the Cavs just signed him to a max contract extension. If his decline is precipitous, he has a fairly debatable case at the moment. But assuming at least a few more seasons of elite production, he’s probably bound for Springfield.
John Gonzalez: In. I’d certainly have Mitchell in ahead of Booker and Horford if it came down to choosing. Mitchell has made All-NBA three times and is a seven-time All-Star. He’ll turn 30 in September and remains one of the most consistent offensive weapons in the league. Plenty of time for him to add a few more All-Star nods to his resume. If he hits double digits in that department, that puts him in elite historic company. Even without that many, he’s likely still in.
Sam Quinn: In. He leads this group in All-Star selections, and he’s the only player among them to make All-NBA teams in each of the past two seasons. He’s still peaking, and while the Cavaliers seem to be trending down as a team, they’re still good enough to at least presumably get him into the postseason. He’s never felt further from a championship than he is now, but the individual résumé when it’s all said and done will be too overwhelming to keep him out. Less than 100 players in NBA history have made seven All-Star teams. He’s already one of them, and I’d expect him to become one of the less than 50 with at least 10 selections when it’s all said and done.
Trae Young
Current Hall of Fame probability: 25.1%
Brad Botkin: Out. Young is tracking toward all-time numbers. Only Magic Johnson and John Stockton own higher career per-game assist marks than Young’s 9.78. He’s got a shot to pass 25,000 career points, which would place him in the top 25 all-time. If he finds some postseason success over the second half of his career, he’ll have a strong Hall case. But as of now, he’s below the cut line because there’s just too much evidence that his numbers lack Hall of Fame substance. That can change. Young was sensational in the 2021 playoffs when he led Atlanta on a surprise conference finals run. He’s genuinely one of the best passers ever. But his shooting has never actually lived up to his marksman reputation, and it doesn’t feel like the Wizards are going to be his ticket out of the play-in.
John Gonzalez: Out. We’ve finally found someone to reject. Young is a four-time All-Star and even somehow has a single All-NBA nod. All of that is…fine. To his credit, he’s a bucket and a quality passer. He’s also brutal on defense and so undervalued by the team he played most of his career for that not only did the Hawks not give him the big-money contract he desired, but the Hawks salary dumped him to the Wizards when they couldn’t find a better return. Basketball-Reference pegs his HOF probability at 25 percent. That feels generous.
Sam Quinn: Out. Young is only at four All-Star selections, below the five-time threshold that tends to get guards in. If it wasn’t enough for Penny Hardaway (who is still awaiting his call), it’s hard to imagine it would be for Young, who lacks Hardaway’s Olympic gold medal and Finals appearance. Young would have to pad his résumé a bit more, but given some of the injuries he’s dealt with and the general trend of the NBA moving away from heliocentric ball-handlers like him, I’d consider it likelier than not that Young has already peaked. The door isn’t closed, but I would call Young the least likely of these players to actually get in.
