We know that 26% of teams that started 2-3 from 2020 through 2025 eventually made the playoffs.
But does 2-3 accurately describe the 2026 Cowboys? As it currently stands, there is no chance this team makes the playoffs. Instead, the lowly Giants currently look to be the NFC East favorite right now – not because they have a better roster, far from it, but simply because they are better coached.
But how bad are the 2-3 Cowboys really?
In statistics, the relationship between two variables is called a correlation, and the strength of that correlation is measured by the “correlation coefficient”. This coefficient (r²) is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. The closer the r² number is to 1, the stronger the relationship between the two variables. The closer it is to zero, the weaker the relationship. In 2025, the metrics most strongly correlated with wins in the NFL were
- Points differential (r² = 0.845)
- EPA/Play differential (r² = 0.76)
- Passer Rating differential (r² = 0.68)
Conveniently for us, all three can be used to calculate projected wins.
Points differential: Last week, the Pythagorean win projection (essentially a souped up version of points differential), adjusted for the games already played, showed the Cowboys as a 9.2-wins team.
Five games into the season, the Cowboys have now scored 138 points and allowed 136. The Pythagorean projected wins for that stat line: 8.6 wins, and adjusted for the games already played: 8.1 wins.
EPA/Play differential: One of the interesting things about both EPA/Play and Passer Rating Differential is that they can both be plugged into a very simple formula to predict win totals in the NFL.
The EPA/Play formula (Projected Wins = EPA Differential * 25 + 8.5) based on a 0.158 offensive EPA/Play and a .182 defensive EPA/Play projects the Cowboys for 7.9 wins.
Passer Rating Differential (PRD): The PRD formula (Projected Wins = PRD * 0.17 + 8.5) based on a 98.2 offensive passer rating and a 109.6 defensive passer rating projects the Cowboys for 6.6 wins.
Prediction markets: A different sort of math, but similar results nonetheless.
- Kalshi has the Cowboys with 8.7 wins.
- Predictionmarketspicks.com has the Cowboys with 7.9 wins.
The historical numbers give the Cowboys a 26% playoff rate from this position. That’s a useful baseline, but it tells us nothing specific about this team.
The three statistical models put Dallas somewhere between 6.6 and 8.1 wins. The prediction markets are in roughly the same neighborhood.
That’s not a playoff profile. And if anything, those numbers may be flattering the Cowboys. Seven or eight wins looks like a reasonable statistical baseline. But depending on your eye test, even that might be optimistic.
Let us know if you think there is any chance they can turn this around, or are they going to miss the playoffs again?
