December 12, 2025
Overview
- The Realtor.com® economics team video update gives you the relevant economic and real estate information you need to know each week every Friday to navigate the housing market as a homebuyer, home seller, or industry professional.
- For the week ending December 12, Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale discusses the November Housing Trends Report and how weekly trends in housing data align. Danielle highlights trends in November Hottest Markets Report and discusses new numbers illustrating why the mortgage rate lock-in continues to affect selling and buying decisions. Mortgage rates ticked up, but remain in the lower end of their recent range. Although the Fed cut rates this week, Danielle reviews why this may not sway mortgage rates much.
- Looking ahead, Danielle highlights her participation in the recent NAR Real Estate Forecast Summit and reveals the Realtor.com Top Markets for 2026, areas where housing transaction volume is expected to grow in the year ahead.
- Find all the details including full reports and our housing data for download at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And instagram @realtordotcomecon for graphics.
Reports and articles referenced
- Realtor.com November 2025 Housing Trends Report
https://www.realtor.com/research/november-2025-data/ - Realtor.com Locked-In Homeowners Report
https://www.realtor.com/research/locked-in-homeowners-dec-2025/ - Realtor.com Top Housing Markets for 2026
https://www.realtor.com/research/top-housing-markets-2026/ - Realtor.com 2026 Housing Forecast
https://www.realtor.com/research/2026-national-housing-forecast/ - Realtor.com November 2025 Hottest Housing Markets Report
https://www.realtor.com/research/november-2025-hottest-housing-markets/ - Weekly Housing Market Trends – Week of December 6
https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-dec-6-2025/ - Commentary on December 2025 Fed Meeting
https://www.realtor.com/research/federal-reserve-december-2025-meeting/ - Commentary on Mortgage Rates – December 11, 2025
https://www.realtor.com/research/freddie-mac-mortgage-rates-december-11-2025/ - Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale Participates in National Association of Realtors Forecast Summit
https://www.nar.realtor/events/nar-real-estate-forecast-summit
Housing data for download
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:
- As the holidays approach, I’ve new data and fresh research on what’s happening now and what is ahead for housing, specifically which markets are poised to see activity grow in 2026. I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com® I want to share the key takeaways and explain what they mean for you.
- Let’s start with what’s happening right now. The November Housing Trends Report showed that buyers gained some ground as home prices flatten and active listings and new listings both continue to grow. The housing market is moving slower than at this time last year, and buyers are likely to find somewhat more price cuts on for-sale homes.
- Weekly trends in housing data have been very similar to these monthly readings. One difference is in the trend for newly listed homes, which has been a bit more sluggish in recent weeks. This gauge of seller enthusiasm is one I will keep my eye on.
- As buyers gain ground, our November Hottest Markets Report shows familiar Northeast and Midwest areas with the most competitive real estate conditions. But among the largest 40 markets we see a departure: San Francisco, California emerged as a top mover indicating a more seller-friendly shift in this market.
- The mortgage rate lock-in effect continues to shape homeowner decisions about selling and buying. Our new report shows just how much. Nationwide, the typical current homeowner would see a nearly $1,000 increase or 73% surge in costs to buy a typical home at today’s mortgage rate.
- This week’s mortgage rate actually rose 3 basis points from last week but at just less than 6 and a quarter percent it remains on the lower end of its 2025 range. Recall that the typical 30-year fixed rate started the year at roughly 7% and didn’t fall below 6.5% until September, so this improvement is still relatively recent.
- At the December Fed meeting, we saw another Fed rate cut. The Fed’s policy rate is now within the range of some estimates of the neutral rate. As a result, some participants may want to see stronger evidence of a slowing economy before supporting further rate cuts, as seen in an uptick in the number of voters who preferred not to cut the rate. When monetary policy is at a transition phase and the Fed’s two policy goals (full employment and price stability) are in tension, it’s not surprising to see different perspectives on appropriate policy, as we see now. Looking ahead, I expect we’ll see just a couple of Fed rate cuts, spaced out over several months in 2026.
- It’s worth remembering that the Fed does not set mortgage rates. What’s ahead for mortgage rates? Our 2026 Housing Forecast anticipates that they’ll continue to hover around their current 6 and a quarter percent range, down from the 2025 annual average. I discussed this and the Realtor.com outlook alongside Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders at the annual NAR Forecast Summit. Watch the video replay for a great overview of the key real estate trends to watch.
- Finally, our 2026 housing predictions enable us to identify the metro areas that are poised to see the greatest growth in home transaction activity, driven by a combination of home sales and home price growth. Our Top Markets for 2026 are overwhelmingly located in the Northeast and Midwest where relative affordability gives buyers a refuge from higher housing costs, but limited new construction hampers supply and drives prices higher. Buyers in these markets are older, and well-qualified, helping them to better navigate a steadying housing market.
- You can find all the details, including full reports and our housing data for download, at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And instagram for graphics.
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