May 9, 2025
I understand how people are confused about Trump’s tariff policy. Are they just looking at the tariffs rather than the long term political strategies? Some think Trump is all over the board and doesn’t have an economic strategy. I don’t think that you get elected President without some strategic ability.
I am just a BS in Political Science from Western Michigan University, this year’s NCAA Ice Hockey Champions. Nonetheless one thing I learned there was that when an election is over and the winners take office, their very first objective is to get reelected. These days getting reelected is tough when you take over a healthy economy.
Getting your party reelected off a healthy economy is difficult as you only have three directions the economy can go in: up-better, down-worse or stay the same. The last two choices are not very acceptable and the first one is not very likely for the whole term. It is well known administrations like to get recessions over in the first year. What to do about it?
Start the economy early with an intentional recession. You do this with tariffs for awhile. Knowing the USA is already on a strong track of bringing manufacturing back to the USA. Now, I’m sure you understand these are not rust belt manufacturing faciltiies. No, they are AI manufacturing facilities. They no longer need people to screw on bolts; they have robots. They do need people to run the AI computers/robots to run the factory.
Now, what you know is manufacturing was already scheduled to come back to the USA in record numbers! OK, let’s not embellish like the current administration so we shall say healthy numbers. That was already on the table. It had nothing to do with the new Trump administration.
What to do about it became create a small recession with tariffs saying you are cutting many deals and bringing manufacturing back. They gin up what was already a healthy economy before the tariffs with tax cuts. With manufacturing already coming back they will put their name on it and take credit for it. Look, C, they closed the border and made the economy come back from Bidend incompetence. They cannot pay for tax cuts because if you could pay for the tax cuts that would proably create a bigger, longer recession unless you had some kind of a windfall.
I know the trend is thinking that it appears more likely Trump will keep the large tariffs on China. I’m not sold yet and the reason is 3.5 years is a long time. It seems more likely the GOP would get crushed in the next election. Certainly the mid-terms and I am not sure we can look past that. It would be very difficult to bring any labor intensive manufacturing back. Our labor rate is too inflated. That’s why are call centers are in foreign countries. It left! Remember what drove the industrial revolution — cheap abundant resources and cheap labor. Where is the cheap labor going to come from?
A super majority might be able to impeach him again. While nobody thinks that could happen we are in some unchartered waters. I don’t think anyone except possibly pollsters would have thought the State of Kansas would vote for abortion rights in those numbers. Although in the Trump election many went Republican now that their state abortion issue was settled. If the economy got bad enough those votes could swing back to Democrats. Life long programming to tribal affiliations die hard.
That is what I think they are doing. I guess we will find out if the ports stay 50-75% idle. I feel like we are in the late rounds of the ‘Guns vs Butter’ fight. Both sides have more or less had their way for a long time. I’m not sure that can continue nor who loses. Perhaps both.
The real test is not the fraudulent representation they are the ‘Art of the Deal’ and brought all this manufacturing back. No, the real test will be when the next budget gets through. Will the budget have a massive deficit anywhere near the last $8 trillion one the Trump Administration ran? If so you can expect much more inflation down the road. I just heard a Republican faction in congress gave Speaker Mike Johnson a deficit limit. Unless it’s zero, it’s not fiscal conservativism.
I believe the core base management of the GOP intends to bankrupt the USA. Perhaps one term at a time or even one every other term. The GOP intentionally lost their fiscal conservative stripes from Reagan when they could not cut social welfare programs and still spend all they wanted on Reagan’s cold war. Reagan brought us the first $1.4 trillion budget.
See: https://www.newsflashtom.club/2025/05/09/he-who-owns-the-gold-makes-the-rules-2/
Let’s Go Green
Tom Flash