We’re halfway through the 2026 college football offseason which means it’s time to start thinking about which programs are contenders and which could be in trouble. One aspect of that consideration is leadership, and desperate head coaches most times don’t turn out successful campaigns. These sideline bosses have the most to lose entering 2026. Let’s talk about why.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
The Seminoles improved upon 2024’s debacle, but let’s be honest, it should be easy for a program like Florida State to win more than two games in a season. Going 5-7 last year was still a tough campaign considering the Seminoles started off the year with a massive victory over No. 8 Alabama and were 3-0 to begin their schedule. Norvell, unfortunately, will have an unproven quarterback to navigate a crucial year. Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels only managed 767 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last year before landing in Tallahassee.
The hype of Florida State’s 12-0 regular season in 2023 has well worn off, and Norvell hasn’t been able to recover the magic he captured in his early tenure. Two consecutive losing seasons have the fanbase antsy to say the least, with a CFP berth looking far from a reality, and the 2026 schedule isn’t going to be kind to them. There’s a very real chance Florida State is 2-6 going into November, and if that’s the case, then athletic director Michael Alford will have no choice but to fire Norvell to stop the bleeding.
Dave Aranda, Baylor
The Bears disappointed in 2025, going 5-7 when they were considered among the favorites to win the Big 12 and reach the CFP in the preseason. Aranda finds himself on the hot seat entering 2026 with QB Sawyer Robertson as just one tool in his belt to stave off a dismissal. Whether that’ll be enough has yet to be seen.
Outside of the ACC, the Big 12 is probably the most competitive conference in the sense that anyone could emerge as a championship contender. Baylor could very well show up in 2026 playing like the team everyone thought would arrive in 2025. That being said, the administration’s expectations may need to be tempered lest they decide to move on from Aranda in a hasty manner. We’ve seen hastier decisions made in college football.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
The Terrapins are entering year eight with Locksley at the helm in College Park. He’s gone two consecutive seasons managing just four wins after three straight years with results that suggested the program was on an upward trend. Freshman quarterback Malik Washington put up a healthy 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2025, but his nine interceptions need to at least be halved if more victories are to be in the team’s future.
Similar to Norvell, Locksley will likely have until Maryland’s Week 8 bye to prove he deserves to stick around. That won’t be easy considering the Terrapins’ schedule is rather stacked against them. The Big Ten is only getting stronger and if Locksley can’t return to the eight-win standard he set before 2024, the program may have to cut him loose and figure out how to find their own Cignetti to escape the conference basement.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Inconsistency has been the name of the game for Beamer in Columbia. He’s not been able to go a single campaign with fewer than four losses, and the up-and-down nature of the previous three seasons must have the administration and fans frustrated. Expectations were sky high after a 9-4 year where the SEC title game was actually within reach until the final pair of weeks.
Beamer has one last season with Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback LaNorris Sellers, and he’d better make the most of it. I’m not saying he’s got to win the SEC to keep his job, but there could be a CFP-or-bust ultimatum weighing on his shoulders, especially with expansion appearing to be inevitable. That being said, the SEC is as wide open as it’s ever been, so it’s not like there isn’t an opening either. Beamer has to figure out how to pull off an upset or two to stay in contention. Anything less, and the questions will turn into hard conversations in Columbia.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Since taking Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell hasn’t managed to win more than seven games in a season. Competing in the Big Ten requires consistency and innovation. Fickell’s tenure in Madison has been consistent… consistently getting worse. The Badgers went 5-7 in 2024 and then 4-8 in 2025; that’s the wrong direction no matter who the coach is.
He has a contract that runs through 2032 and humbly declined a one-year extension that was surprisingly offered by the school this offseason. That would sound like job security to any other head coach. However, Fickell’s days are numbered, and that number may be fewer than the total weeks there are in a season. If the administration decides to let Fickell continue to lead through the team’s bye, he’ll be required to finish out the season above .500 regardless of how tough the opponents are. No longer can a once respectable program like Wisconsin associate with the Big Ten’s basement dwellers.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
The future Pro Football Hall of Famer had a rough start to his college football career, going 4-8 with the Tar Heels in 2025. To his credit he made a crucial adjustment as soon as the season ended in letting offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens go and replacing him with Bobby Petrino. It’s yet to be seen of the latter’s past will follow him to Chapel Hill and affect how his elite football acumen translates for the team.
Petrino knows offense and that’s what Carolina lacked last year. The transfer portal netted the program a promising QB in Billy Edwards Jr. from Wisconsin and wideout Mason Humphrey from Lehigh. A group of hungry underdogs may be the most dangerous to deal with in a weak ACC… at least that’s the hope. Another sub-.500 showing in 2026 could have the administration looking to execute on an exit plan it already denied existed.
Lincoln Riley, USC
USC fans are an antsy bunch. Lincoln Riley arrived in Los Angeles and got off to a hot start, appearing in the Pac-12 championship game and a New Year’s Six bowl. Over the next two seasons, even with Caleb Williams, the Trojans struggled to find consistency on the gridiron, and they’re back in the same boat this year.
The program’s jump to the Big Ten has impacted things considerably, but USC literally engineered the end of the old Pac-12 to go play teams in the Midwest multiple times a year. If representing its new home in the CFP is truly the goal, the program may need a head coach that can handle the geographic difficulties. Riley’s seat is hotter than people realize, but he’s also seemingly got buns of steel. Failure to reach the CFP this year should have the administration turning the temperature up to the max, or nothing will change.
Bill O’Brien, Boston College
O’Brien’s tenure with the program got off to an impressive start in 2024, going 4-1 with a win over then-No. 10 Florida State and a one-score loss to No. 6 Missouri. But then reality hit with a three-game losing streak and a 3-2 finish to the campaign. If 2025 was supposed to be an encouraging follow up, Boston College fell well short of the mark at 2-10.
The 2026 campaign doesn’t look much more promising in a crucial year three under O’Brien. Finishing .500 or better will be the minimum if he wants to keep his job and that may be asking a lot with a wide open QB battle and not many well-known names on the roster to compete in the ACC. Don’t be surprised if there are changes made during the Week 6 bye.
Scotty Walden, UTEP
With a jump to the Mountain West coming in July, already lofty expectations will get even loftier entering the 2026 season. The toughest competition in the conference is now in the Pac-12 so there’s a gigantic opening to stake a claim. Walden hasn’t won more than three games in a season over the course of his two-year tenure, so this could be his last chance to prove he can reach the .500 threshold.
Good luck with that. The team has dates with Oklahoma and Michigan in the first three weeks and then it’ll have to contend with the likes of Oregon State, North Dakota State and Hawaii in conference play. A few upsets will be necessary to give the administration a reason to hold off on making a change. Although, I wouldn’t blame them since the program has only had one winning season in the last 11 years.
Jay Sawvel, Wyoming
Another Mountain West coach entering a crucial year three, Sawvel went a combined 7-17 the last couple seasons. The departure of perennial contenders in the conference for the Pac-12 presents a unique opportunity for his program to take advantage of its experience against newcomers. That’s a double-edged sword, however.
If Wyoming cannot beat those new teams on its schedule like North Dakota State, Northern Illinois and UTEP, then that will be a tough embarrassment to get over. It’s been a long time since the Josh Allen era but the program is still considered a prominent jumping off point for coaches to get into the Power Four. The Cowboys could easily attract an impressive and ambitious hire if things don’t improve under Sawvel in 2026.
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